The Bureau of Meteorology says the South East of NSW is unlikely to receive the rain we have been hoping for this coming winter.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Felicity Gamble said there was a 30-35 per cent chance of a normal amount of rainfall from Kiama to the Victorian border.
There was as low as a 25 per cent chance further inland, towards the Southern Highlands and Tablelands.
She said this was due to the combination of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole and a weakening of the El Nino pattern.
The combination would bring warmer temperatures, more cloud-free days and clear night skies, with an increased chance of frost.
READ MORE: Car damaged after strong winds in Longbeach
El Nino's conditions may have also contributed to this year's autumn going down as one of Australia's five warmest autumns on record.
Ms Gamble said the cause of this was being analysed, but El Nino's conditions and climate change were underlying factors.
"Particularly the South-East Eastern half of the state, we saw drier than average conditions for most of autumn," she said.
"In addition to those natural drivers, the El Nino phase was off and on in Autumn. It was also influenced by climate change, meaning warmer months and seasons."
"Localised effects such as sea surface temperatures ... means less rainfall."
Chance of reaching above winter's median rainfall
Batemans Bay: Unlikely, 39 per cent, 168mm
Narooma/Kianga: Equal likelihood, 40 per cent, 150mm
Ulladulla: Unlikely, 36 per cent, 205mm
Nowra: Unlikely, 32 per cent, 195mm
Kiama: Unlikely, 32 per cent, 238mm
Bega: Unlikely, 32 per cent, 122mm
Mittagong: Unlikely, 28 per cent, 204mm
Goulburn: Unlikely, 28 per cent, 120mm
Yass: Unlikely, 25 per cent, 182mm
Ms Gamble said strong winds were common in late May, especially with a strong, cold front.
"You have a completely different cold air mass that approaches ... and it brings a significant change from warm temperatures to cool temperatures," she said.
"It usually comes up from the south. You do see a change in wind direction ... it brings quite a strong change.
"Being fairly mild, it's come as a bit of a shock."
A NSW Bureau of Meteorology duty forecaster said the South Coast dropped to below-average temperatures after the front.
Moruya hit 0 degrees Celcius on Tuesday night, May 29, which was 5-7 degrees below a minimum temperature in May. The average temperature for May in Moruya was 7.1 degrees.
Ulladulla's night temperature on Wednesday, May 30, was 7 degrees, where the monthly average was 11.8 degrees.
The spokesperson said to keep in mind it was near the end of May.
READ MORE: Batemans Bay weather and regional forecast