Sea-level rise is real and local governments have no choice but to plan for things to get worse – that’s the clear finding of a long-awaited study for Eurobodalla coastal dwellers.
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An independent review of the science of sea levels goes on public exhibition today, jointly commissioned by Eurobodalla and Shoalhaven shires.
The results are a rebuff to those in the shire arguing for unrestrained development in coastal areas.
Two firms, Whitehead & Associates and Coastal Environment, were commissioned to review the current science and recommend benchmarks for planners.
While adopting a smaller projection for 2050 than the previous NSW Government policy, down from 0.35m to 0.26m, they warned sea-level rise “is real” and would get worse as governments failed to curb carbon emissions.
“Sea-level rise and its impacts are real,” they found.
“Some properties will be increasingly affected over time.”
They endorsed international projections of sea-level rises and said the Eurobodalla was likely to be in line with global trends.
“There is no compelling reason to not adopt the projections the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the most widely accepted and competent information presently available,” the report said.
“Recent sea-level rise trends offshore of NSW are similar to the global average.
“Recent changes in sea-level have been very similar between Sydney and the Shoalhaven and Eurobodalla coasts.
“Future NSW seal-level rise will likely be similar to the global average, with only minor variations.”
The consultants said there was no reason to expect the Eurobodalla to experience different levels.
“Variable sea-level rise allowances between Sydney the Eurobodalla coast are not justified,” the authors said.
Their projections are based on the slow movement toward national and international curbing of carbon emissions.
They said their projection assumed “world economic growth will continue with an ongoing heavy reliance on fossil fuels at the primary source of energy”.
“Councils should continue to plan for sea-level rise,” the authors said.
“Council should continue to assume that climate change is real and impacts will become more pronounced over time.”
They recommended a cautious, risk-averse approach and also called for council decisions to be “clear and transparent”.
The study was commissioned after the NSW Government withdrew its umbrella planning policy for sea-level rise, putting the onus on individual local governments.
The consultants were asked to review legal opinions, NSW Government advice and “the latest science in a local context”.
They were asked to provide a benchmark for a coastal planning framework.
They said a rise of 0.05m had occurred since 1990 and predicted a rise of 0.10m by 2030.
The study will be exhibited for six weeks.
A final draft will be presented to councillors after community responses are received.
However, the report does not immediately take some 6000 properties out of sea-level rise investigation areas.
The new benchmarks will be used to complete coastal hazard planning, which might take 12 months.
