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10.46PM: Newly elected Prime Minister Tony Abbott declared Australia was under new management as he claimed victory in the federal election, but it may be some days before Eden-Monaro is under any management at all.
While incumbent ALP member Mike Kelly has a narrow lead over his Liberal rival Peter Hendy, thousands of pre-poll votes are likely to determine the final winner.
Of the primary votes counted so far, Mr Hendy has taken 43.92 per cent, Dr Kelly 40.13 per cent, Greens candidate Catherine Moore 7.86 per cent and Palmer Party candidate Dean Lynch 4.98 per cent, with the other four candidates netting a combined 3.11 per cent.
On a two-party preferred basis, Dr Kelly is just ahead of Mr Hendy, 50.3 to 49.7.
To date, there has been a 3.9 per cent swing to the Liberals but they need 4.2 per cent to dislodge the sitting member.
9.40PM: Peter Hendy has told supporters that a Liberal victory is still possible in the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, despite trailing Labor incumbent Mike Kelly 49-51 with 46 per cent of the vote counted.
Mr Hendy told his supporters that, contrary to ABC television reports calling the seat for Labor, the situation was “absolutely line ball”.
“Contrary to what you’re seeing on the TV, the scrutineers for The Liberal Party have fed (data) back in to the Liberal Party computers in Sydney, which show’s that it is absolutely line ball - basically too close to call,” he said.
A large number of pre-poll votes lodged prior to election day were yet to be counted, and Mr Hendy said he expected pre-poll votes to fall in the Liberal Party’s favour.
“We have a feeling that we’ve done very well in pre poll, and that’s not actually being factored in to the figures we’re seeing already,” he said.
9.30PM: Eden-Monaro's 40-year status as a national bellwether in federal elections may be at an end with Labor incumbent Mike Kelly holding a narrow lead in the seat. Dr Kelly leads Liberal candidate Peter Hendy 51-49 with 46 per cent of the vote counted.
The current swing to the Liberal party in the seat is 3.43 per cent which, if maintained, would not be enough to unseat Dr Kelly who holds Eden-Monaro with a margin of 4.2 per cent.
8.40PM: Mike Kelly has just got his nose ahead on a two-party preferred basis, leading Liberal Peter Hendy 50.81 per cent to 49.19 per cent.
7.50PM: ALP incumbent Mike Kelly may have bucked the massive swing against the Rudd Labor Government, and has credited regional media with giving him the opportunity to do so.
"Rural and regional seats are a little bit different," Mr Kelly said. "People pay close attention to the local candidates."
Mr Kelly said he was facing a long night before the fate of Eden-Monaro was decided.
"It really does make a big difference where the early counting is coming from," he said.
"But this has been one of the best campaigns I have been involved in. There has been good positive feedback although it's a really tough election."
Mr Kelly said his opponent, Peter Hendy, was simply "not the right candidate", and had shown a "distinct lack of commitment in getting to know the electorate".
He conceded the threat of public service cuts had played a big role in the Queanbeyan vote.
6.00PM: Polling booths have just closed and counting is about to begin. Polling officials will count all first preferences on the House of Representatives ballot papers. Next they will conduct a two-candidate-preferred count of all House of Representatives ballot papers.
3.50PM: The first exit poll is in. The Roy Morgan-Channel 10 exit poll has the Coalition beating Labor 52 per cent to 48 per cent on the two-party preferred vote, which is fairly in line with predictions.
The poll, taken at 3pm from a sample of 4096 Australian voters, shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 42.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent in primary votes.
The Greens Party is showing a primary vote of 11 per cent, with “others” taking in 8 per cent.
Billionaire mining magnate Clive Palmer's party is winning 9.5 per cent of primary votes in Queensland and 5 per cent in New South Wales and Western Australia, according to the exit poll.
Given the Palmer United Party is giving 65 per cent of its preferences to the Coalition, Roy Morgan Research predicts that if Palmer voters follow the how-to-vote card, the Coalition should expect about a 1.5 per cent bump in its two-party preferred vote, taking it to 53.5 per cent compared with Labor’s 46.5 per cent.
3.40PM UPDATE: Still very mixed signals coming out of polling booths in the north of Eden-Monaro. “I hope the one I vote for will win - Mr Rudd,” a Mossy Point voter said.
Shirley Read, of Broulee, was still undecided going in to the poll.
“I know I’m just going to end up with a politician,” she said.
“I’ve no idea who will win. I haven’t been watching the coverage on television because it’s boring.”
Greg Malavey, of Moruya, said Peter Hendy and the Liberal Party would win.
“I think Labor has not been able to communicate what their policies are. They’ve spent so much time infighting and the Kevin Rudd/Julia Gillard think is just the biggest turn off,” he said.
Greens supporter Steve Doyle said the biggest issue for him going in to the polls was taking action on climate change.
“I want them to do something about climate change – that’s the biggest challenge facing the whole world,” he said.
But, despite his political alignment, Mr Doyle said he hoped Mike Kelly would win the seat of Eden-Monaro.
“I would like to see the Greens win, but realistically I would like to think Mike Kelly is in with a good chance. He’s a good local member.”
3.10PM UPDATE: Labor supporters at Malua Bay still hold out hope that incumbent Mike Kelly will be returned. Click here for video of Paul Johnston.
2.50PM UPDATE: Voting at Tathra has been relegated to almost a sideshow with glorious sunshine, a school oval packed with colourful stalls and a pair of playful whales off Tathra Beach making for more pleasant distractions.
People rocking up to Tathra Public School to cast their vote for Eden-Monaro were funnelled through the school hall – entering on one side, but emerging from the other onto the oval.
Very few people were willing to speak about election matters, preferring instead to finally put the ballot box behind them and grab their sausage sandwich or hot potato before checking out the array of food, crafts, jewellery and second-hand items on display.
It was a family-friendly affair with the face-painting and jumping castle attracting longer queues than the polling booths, while much of the overheard chatter revolved around a pair of whales that had been spotted cavorting close to shore near the surf lifesaving club.
Meanwhile, back at the school, young musicians were providing the entertainment, while kids with all manner of characters, creatures and glittery designs painted on their faces emphasised the fun and social nature of election day.
It was almost enough to make you consider the Pirate Party in the Senate.
2.05PM UPDATE: Labor member Mike Kelly has cast his vote at Karabar High School.
There had been talk of the bellwether trend breaking at this election but recent betting shows Liberal Peter Hendy is favoured to win the seat from the high-profile MP, who holds it with a 4.2 per cent majority.
2.00PM UPDATE: Voting at Candelo Town Hall has been an extremely sociable affair today. A surprise addition to the group of people handing out how-to-votes was Sarah Russell, handing out leaflets for GetUp.
“I heard there was going to be GetUp groups in Merimbula and Pambula, so I got up early this morning and went to get some signage and leaflets from them and came here,” Ms Russell said.
“I think it’s really important that people know exactly where the major parties stand on the major issues, on environment, social justice, the economy and human rights.
“This isn’t a how to vote card, it’s just a guide to where all the parties stand and people are really responding to that.”
David Noye, from the Liberal Party, said he enjoyed election day.
“It’s a great atmosphere and you can catch up on the gossip for the year!”
People entering the hall to vote were keen to take leaflets from all the parties and there seemed to be an even spread of voters across the Labor, Liberal and Green spectrum.
When asked, many voters said they were just relieved the election was over, with “I’ve just had a gut-full” a common refrain.
Only three parties were represented, with the sole contribution of the Palmer United Party’s Eden Monaro candidate Dean Lynch a poster poorly taped to an electricity poll.
Many voters said, “Who’s Dean Lynch?” and laughed off PUP as “that Titanic guy’s party”.
1.00PM UPDATE: State Member for Bega Andrew Constance has been on the ground in the northern part of the Eden-Monaro. He says the election locally will be tight but the feeling is in favour of Liberal Peter Hendy. Click here for video.
NOON UPDATE: Broulee-based Stable Population Party candidate Martin Tye cast his vote at Broulee Public School this morning. He said he thought the Liberals seemed to be “going well” nationally but had his own - questionable - thoughts on who would win the seat of Eden-Monaro.
“The Stable Population Party is going to get in by a huge majority,” he said “They’re the only ones that have addressed the ‘everything’ issue – that population impacts upon everything from the environment to the economy.
“For me personally it’s been an awesome experience, but some of the stuff that’s been going on is disgraceful – it’s better to talk about issues than throw mud at each other – there’s been too much of that.”
11:00AM UPDATE: Seems relatively quiet on the ground at coastal booths in the northern part of the electorate. High numbers of pre-poll voters are having an impact.
10:00AM UPDATE: Eden-Monaro has existed since Federation and has been held by all parties over the years. The seat has always had a tendency to be won by the party that forms government, but this tendency has assumed 'litmus test' proportions since 1972, the seat having been won by the party that formed government at every election since 1972. Today's vote could determine whether ALP incumbent Mike Kelly can buck that trend.
9.00AM UPDATE: Labor's two-party preferred percentage in Eden-Monaro has tracked Labor's statewide vote remarkably closely. Only twice, in the late 1980s and again in 2010, has a gap opened between Labor's Eden-Monaro and NSW performances. Political pundits will be watching to see if that trend holds true today.
8.00AM UPDATE: Polling booths have opened around Eden-Monaro. If you want to know where you can get a sausage sandwich or a bacon and egg roll while you vote, click here!